Decisions: The Hats

A while back when I was attending a training on communication, I came across the Six Thinking Hats-model.



This model was developed by Edward de Bono and its aim is to include different types of thinking when making a decision. I was using this model in a group, but believe that this model can be applied in individual decision-making as well, considering that it draws attention to different approaches to a problem.

Each hat corresponds to one type of thinking (see Wikipedia for more):

• Information (White) - considering purely what information is available, what are the facts?
• Emotions (Red) - intuitive or instinctive gut reactions or statements of emotional feeling (but not any justification)
• Discernment (Black) - logic applied to identifying reasons to be cautious and conservative
• Optimistic response (Yellow) - logic applied to identifying benefits, seeking harmony
• Creativity (Green) - statements of provocation and investigation, seeing where a thought goes

The blue hat is that of the facilitator – it is there to give direction to the process. So, how are these hats used?

The brainstorming session or meeting begins with the blue hat. After that the hats are “used” in turns (the facilitator decides which hat is currently on) for a short while and all the participators are requested to think in terms of that specific colour.

My experience about this model is positive: I like the way it takes into accounts such aspects as optimism and creativity, and the way that the colours are balanced. It also captures a wide range of factors that may occur once the decision is made (risks and benefits are taken into account) in an out-of-the-box way. It can be beneficial in the beginning of a decision-making process, while the brainstorming is still taking place. I mentioned above that I think this can be applied to individual decision-making, and I’m sure it can but that it requires extra work. It tends to be easier if there is someone external directing the thoughts (when they need to fall into one specific group).

Have you ever tried the hats? What did you think?

Things We Laughed About This Week

Whenever probability theory hits you, it’s time to start thinking about things more interesting than this one:

 
It doesn’t matter how much sense it makes, or how useful it is for human survival (or whatever), it’s not FUN. Not as fun as the following remarks or events:

• The leader of the Left Alliance, Paavo Arhinmäki, publically wished to give Carl Haglund, the chairman of the Swedish People’s Party, a train ticket to Siberia. It’s not politically correct, someone might even find this statement quite disturbing. Personally, I did giggle a little bit when I read the story and the reactions it caused. If Mr. Haglund doesn’t want the ticket, I wouldn’t mind using it. No problem - дайте мне! 
• Russians trying to order vodka in Russian in the middle of the (non-Russian) forest. The poor bartender was very confused. 
• Ski-jumper Harri Olli wants Finland to join Russia because Finland is such a “s**t state”. There’s nothing wrong with Russia, so no offence – but, this is a statement that will confuse and anger, rather than .make people bounce with happiness. I wonder how all this is related to ski-jumping?

NB: the purpose of this post is not to shed negative light on Russia. Rather, yours truly finds it quite interesting how Russia is used in political discourse (and apparently also in ski-jumping circles) to make fun of opponents or for social commentary.

Decisions.

One of the first things one learns when starting with decision analysis, is the fact that no matter what it is that we want to do, there are always a lot of alternatives. Most of these alternatives are in no way obvious, and we need a moment or two (or ten) to even notice that they exist. Sometimes we don’t notice them at all, they exist beyond our imagination. The second thing one learns is that there rarely is a perfect decision. If there would be such a thing, we would not have to make many decisions in life. Sometimes different alternatives can be almost equally good - these are probably the most difficult decisions. Most decisions are the outcome of weighed preferences, risks and probabilities. The third thing the kind professors will tell you is that the quality of a decision does not depend on the outcome, but rather on the quality of the decision making process. That is, the decision maker should actively and consciously consider all relevant objectives, preferences, risks and probabilities, and not just listen to what the gut feeling says today. By ensuring that all aspects have been taken into account, and that preferences, risks and probabilities have been measured correctly, we can minimize the risk of making  a bad decision. Well, until life happens and kicks us in the head.

I just made a decision. A big one. That’s all I’m willing to say about it right now, even though I must admit that I’m quite excited about it.

This is what the decision making process (more or less) should have looked like in an ideal world



This is what the process actually looked like, on the surface at least


(in reality I did analyze this in my head for quite some time, and believe that the decision I reached is a good one)
Image 1 and image 2

Why Would Anyone Need A Decision Analyst

"It is change, continuing change, inevitable change, that is the dominant factor in society today. No sensible decision can be made any longer without taking into account not only the world as it is, but the world as it will be."

- Isaac Asimov -

When TT and I were talking about my career prospects, I mentioned that I would like to work as a decision and risk analyst (after all, that’s what I’m studying!). He was surprised: “why would anyone need a specialist to analyze his/her decisions? Doesn’t each person know what is the best decision for him/her?”.

This, my friends, is a valid question. Now, why would anyone pay lots of money, just so that some stranger would analyze their decisions?

First, keep in mind that we are not talking about the straightforward decision problems that people encounter in their daily lives. We are talking about decisions with consequences so costly or undesirable that it really is worth paying someone for their help. Some decision makers need to make such decisions, that can affect the whole society (or parts of it) negatively. Remember, all human activity springs from a decision – the decision to act or not to act.

So, why do we need help?

* In politics, many decision makers are elected by the people. There is no official requirement that they know how to make good decisions. If there were, many strange laws would have not come into existence. Many wars would not have been fought and our society would look very different now. Most decision makers are normal people, like you and me. And how do you and I make decisions? Sometimes we use our gut feeling. Other times we look at what’s best for us personally, not the society as a whole. Cognitive biases tend to affect us now and then, too. Often we don’t have the time, nor the energy, to carefully analyze all the aspects of a given decision problem. And what’s the result? Sometimes it’s good, sometimes it’s bad. It’s rarely optimal.

* Decision making requires the ability to analyze alternatives and consequences, to assess uncertainties, to weigh costs, to work with different types of probabilities. It’s about identifying the problem, defining objectives and running risk analyses. How many of us do all those things when faced with a tough decision? How many of us KNOW how to do them?

* A good decision maker is also familiar with “psychological traps” – in many cases people use heuristics to make decisions. These normally function very well, but sometimes they can lead to unwanted cognitive biases that affect the solution negatively.

* Decision analysis is also about knowing how to use the correct tools.

 

  As with most things in life, a tool is only useful as long as one knows how to use it.

 

"Quality is never an accident; it is always the result of high intention, sincere effort, intelligent direction and skillful execution; it represents the wise choice of many alternatives, the cumulative experience of many masters of craftsmanship. Quality also marks the search for an ideal after necessity has been satisfied and mere usefulness achieved."

-John Ruskin-