Friday, 31 August 2012


One of the first things one learns when starting with decision analysis, is the fact that no matter what it is that we want to do, there are always a lot of alternatives. Most of these alternatives are in no way obvious, and we need a moment or two (or ten) to even notice that they exist. Sometimes we don’t notice them at all, they exist beyond our imagination. The second thing one learns is that there rarely is a perfect decision. If there would be such a thing, we would not have to make many decisions in life. Sometimes different alternatives can be almost equally good - these are probably the most difficult decisions. Most decisions are the outcome of weighed preferences, risks and probabilities. The third thing the kind professors will tell you is that the quality of a decision does not depend on the outcome, but rather on the quality of the decision making process. That is, the decision maker should actively and consciously consider all relevant objectives, preferences, risks and probabilities, and not just listen to what the gut feeling says today. By ensuring that all aspects have been taken into account, and that preferences, risks and probabilities have been measured correctly, we can minimize the risk of making  a bad decision. Well, until life happens and kicks us in the head.

I just made a decision. A big one. That’s all I’m willing to say about it right now, even though I must admit that I’m quite excited about it.

This is what the decision making process (more or less) should have looked like in an ideal world

decision tree

This is what the process actually looked like, on the surface at least

(in reality I did analyze this in my head for quite some time, and believe that the decision I reached is a good one)
Image 1 and image 2

No comments: